How do you find an up-and-coming niche? By thinking of it as real estate. Would you buy "up-and-coming" real estate in an area you don't know?
Of course not, it may be "going nowhere" real estate. But my best investments have been real estate in places that I know and love. When you know a place, opportunities arise. They are about as high-return and low-risk as is possible in the investment arena.
Before I had much money, as a medical student I paid my way through school by playing cards in Las Vegas (I'm not a gambler, just good at math). Janice and I used to drive down to Miami Beach for vacations. We knew both locations well (30 years ago now, phew!). I can remember telling her, "Geez, I wish we had money. These would be the best investments we'd ever make." And indeed, they have gone up in value by a multiple of 100 at least (even with the latest downturn)!
New Yorkers make money by picking the next part of Manhattan (and now the next borough!) that they believe will become discovered and go up in value. Those who are the most tuned-in do very well.
Now... think of your niche as a piece of e-real-estate. In a sense, that's exactly what it is. It's a concept. It's in people's minds. It's what they are searching for. So...
I could never tell you what the next hot fashion company is. But my daughter, Yuki, probably could. She knows fashion. Whether she knows enough yet to differentiate "fad" is another thing. You don't want to choose a Pet Rock that comes, gets hot, and then disappears.
So... if you're looking for an emerging/up-and-coming niche opportunity... know your niche. And that brings me back to...
Human judgment. And that judgment can only be good if it has enough data to make a good decision.
Numbers only help. Read all the guidelines in the SBI! Action Guide about choosing a niche -- too many people focus only on the Site Concept Keyword.
A good niche should not generally "tank" if you are considering the entire set of keywords in your Master Keyword List for a Site Concept Keyword. If you are just considering the numbers for one word, likely the Site Concept Keyword, a statistical fluke can mislead you.
Once you have all the numbers, go beyond that information.
The bottom line, of course (and every veteran SBIer knows I'll write this next)...
Use YOUR own good human judgment. For example...
If you know Italy, you'll know, as much from the numbers as from your own common sense, that it's too broad to be a winnable niche. However, you may also believe, based on your expertise, that Puglia is emerging as a travel destination and will become better known in years to come. The numbers may not justify it now, but your call that Puglia is up-and-coming may overrule numbers.
Choosing a niche is the most important decision you'll make. Case study Elad took months to decide. Now he generates 1 million visitors per month among his 5 related sites.
So... choose wisely. Take your time. Get it right. And that means...
Do not let the numbers be "the brain."
Know your niche.
And... around and around we go.
All the best,
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