Ken's Take on Google's +1

Ken's Blog

Now that I've had a bit more time to digest Google's recent "+1" beta release, here's a more detailed short-and-long term look at what it all means...

First, to SBIers who don't have time to read about "yet another social thing" or who are worried about "one more thing to learn and master"...

You have nothing to do. It's worth giving this a quick read now to understand what's happening, and what we'll be doing about it.

But don't worry about it. While this may (or may not) be important, it adds no work or major learning curve. :-)

On that note, what will we be doing about it?

We'll be adding this to Socialize It!, both the 8-pack (likely replacing Google Buzz) and the 2-pack (optional addition), when Google's release process makes it available. Until then, +1's rollout is in beta. It is currently being tested for those who want to "+1" pages found at Google's search results.

Note: Remember that Google Buzz was/is a failure. It was supposed to be Twitter and Facebook rolled into one. Buzz, by the way, will be audited for privacy violations for the next 20 years. Expect Buzz to disappear. And it's quite possible that +1 could meet the same fate.

So, while it's our job to track this carefully for you, you can afford to take this with a grain of salt for the next little while. We'll let you know if and when (and how) to use this, if and when the time comes. :-)

Stages of Release

Google's new "+1" feature will go through two major stages...

Stage 1) Vote for a page that you find on Google Search. This is not available to most searchers. You likely won't see the "+1" button since it's being tested with a small number of searchers. If you would like to...

Click here to play with +1 at Google Search. You need a Google Profile and you need to be logged into it. And frankly, you'll say, "That's it?" Assessment? Not worth your time.

Stage 2) Vote for a page or post that you find on a site or blog. This iteration is months away, according to Google. Bloggers and site owners will be able to add a "+1" button throughout their sites to let visitors "vote" for their pages/posts.

This is potentially the most interesting aspect of "+1." It will surely be taken up by websites and blogs in great numbers. Stage 2 is where we add it to Socialize It!, so all you will have to do is click a button to add it.

That said, its success does not rest upon us marketers using it.

Its success depends upon whether average, everyday surfers will use it.

That, as we will see, is a big question mark. Let's add a hypothetical (but almost sure bet) Stage 3...

Stage 3

This is when Google uses all those tons (hopefully, for Google, and for us) of votes and integrates them as a new factor into its ranking algorithm.

The most Google will admit to is that it is studying this possibility. But for "+1" to make any sense, this has to be the whole purpose. This statement from Google tells me that this is, indeed, the final goal...

"This is just one of many signals Google may use to determine a page's relevance and ranking, and we're constantly tweaking and improving our algorithm to improve overall search quality."

Bing will be making more and more use of Facebook's Like (and other) data to improve its search results. Google can't afford to be left behind, Facebook being unlikely to do anything to help Google.

OK, let's get started by comparing Google's "+1" to Facebook's "Like" button...

Facebook Like vs. Google +1

On the surface, the similarities are obvious. Google wants into the "Like" button business. It needs to add a social level to its algorithm. (Google is not admitting that this is the final endgame for "+1," but none of this makes much sense without that happening.)

How will "+1" fare? Here are the key points to consider...

1) Size of Reach vs. Relevance of Reach

More than half of Canada and the U.S. are now on Facebook. A much smaller percentage use Gmail and the other Google services that add people to one's social circle. Remember...

Think "regular." Average surfers are not you; they are not sophisticated. They use Facebook.

That's the "macro" view. Let's go "micro"...

Each click on a Facebook "Like" (as well as each comment) goes to your friends at the very moment you click the button. That's an immediate distribution to everyone. Some may be interested, discovering something entirely new. When those people like, it gets re-passed on to their friends.

A click on Google "+1" (there are no comments) reaches your social circle (as a note added to the search engine results page (SERP) listing, with the name of the person in your circle who "+1'd" it) only at the time you happen to be searching. It seems that "+1" votes will also insert pages in the SERPs (for those in the voter's social circle) and can be found at Social Search, too.

A click on a "Like" button delivers increased distribution (quantity and viral) through Facebook, but it's less relevant. In other words, your friends may not necessarily be interested in what you "liked." But some will be, and some of those will pass it on.

Back at Google, if I ever do a related search to a page that someone in my social circle "liked" in the past ("Like" is what "+1" boils down to), "+1 will deliver a "vote" that is more relevant, since I may see your "vote" right at the moment I'm searching, not at the moment you voted for a page. However...

It depends on coincidental interests. And I don't see much "viral distribution" opportunity here. It's not the way Google properties work.

2) Behavior of "Regular" People

This one is critically important, likely the ultimate factor...

Will folks actually use the "+1" button? Let's look at both stages of Google's release...

Stage 1 -- How do you know you like a "found page" until after you visit it? Searchers won't "+1" it on the basis of its description on the SERP ("Wow, what a great description!"?? I doubt it!). And most won't click "back" after they find a great page, because they aren't likely to be bouncing back to Google if they do find an excellent page. Also, we are all time-pressed -- I don't see myself remembering "+1" and clicking however many BACKs it takes to return to Google, find the listing, "+1" it, and then return to where I was.

Also, what's the immediate point? Why would regular people click "+1" at Google Search? To let future searchers in your social circle know that you "+1'd" a site (page?) at some point in the past, in case someone in their social circle finds it in the future? Not much of a motivation to click back to Google to do this.

The only folks I see using this, after the novelty wears off, is spammers. OK, that may be a bit of an over-statement, but...

I have trouble seeing searchers (who are very task-oriented) using this in the volume that Google needs. For example, Google's search results will also tell you the total of all "+1 users" who voted for any given page, giving the searcher some general indication of popularity.

But will enough people click on a page found for "Anguilla," say, to make this worthwhile? What about less in-demand search terms? What about the long tail?

And what about spam? I cansee spammers using this, to the point that the spammer-to-honest-clicker rate is likely to be very high. I hope Google's got this part figured out.

It's going to take some massive usage to generate useful data.

Stage 1, in any event, is of little interest. The real potential value lies in Stage 2, when Google releases this to websites and blogs.

What about Stage 2? There are questions...

Will "regular" surfers use both the "Like" and the "+1" buttons? Facebook's "Like" is extremely well known and understood. The "reasons to click" are clear and simple...

They click to tell their friends. Motives may be showing off what they are "into," to share a helpful link, etc. Whatever the reason, the process is well established and is part of Facebook's DNA.

However, "+1" is more like a feature that is being grafted onto Google. I'm not sure that "+1" carries those pre-understood motives. The average surfer won't even know why he's voting for this page or who will see it, or when. Even Google's non-intuitive name, "+1," will hamper "mass-usage."

Note: Ads can be "+1'd" too, working in a similar way. But how often are folks going to "+1" ads? I can see advertisers adding a few Likes to their ads to try to get more clicks, perhaps. But there are very few ads that make anyone say, "wow, I have to pass this on." ;-)

While the Facebook motivation is well established (pass your Likes on to friends), it's not so obvious for Google (pass your Likes on to friends in case they are searching at some point in the future? And who the heck are your "friends" anyway?).

Does Google really have a "social presence" like Facebook -- do folks really feel that they have a "social circle" at Google, as they most certainly do in FB. Or do Gmail and Profile accounts feel more like silos about you?

"Social" is Facebook's very DNA. Competing for the average user's "Like" mindshare is going to be tough. And on that note...

3) Neat and Clear vs. Messy and Confusing

Google's concept of social and social groups (and therefore social spread) is messy.

What exactly is your social group at Google? Who's in it? How does the nature of that vary from Facebook? Yes, web marketers understand that it includes those in one's Gmail contact list, chat friends, Google Reader and Google Buzz follows, My Contacts group in Google Contacts (google.com/contacts), and other Google Property users -- even people publicly connected through social sites, such as Twitter and FriendFeed.

It's a scattered list from a variety of Google Properties, not one source like FB friends. For those of us in "the business," that's messy. But for "regular users," this is going to be downright confusing.

Google themselves have shown that most people don't even know what a browser is!

Who wants to go check the "Social Circle and Content" section of the Google Dashboard? Who wants to figure out how this fits in?

If you feel overwhelmed trying to figure out who's in your circle, as I mentioned earlier, imagine the everyday surfer who does not know what a browser is?

4) Risk of Inappropriateness

The "+1 social circle" is going to be, as we've seen, a mixed bag of contacts. While you add "FB friends" as friends, Gmail contacts exist for many different reasons, business, mail, etc. - and not social, except for the no-buzz Buzz. And then there are all those other ways to make it into your social circle.

If you don't know who you are "+1'ing" to, and if it's not just friends whom you know at Facebook, do you want to risk "+1'ing" to an employer or business associate? Loads of risk here.

The whole feel is different, too. While I get the sense that I am safely telling friends about what I "like" with FB, most surfers won't get a real sense of who they are telling at "+1."

This button will appear with FB's "Like" button on websites and blogs (Stage 2). People are likely to do one or the other. Google is hoping for both. But, if it's just one action, and many elements above may just make it one, that one action is going to be to click on Facebook's Like button.

5) Percentage Logged In and Participation Level

How many regular folks are logged into FB at any given moment vs. Google? (We "marketers" tend to forget the huge difference between "REAL people" and us.)

My guess (anyone with documentation on this?) is that way more "average folks" (non-marketers) are logged into Facebook than Gmail and other Google accounts.

And here's another barrier -- you need a Google Profile. How many average people have one of those? If you don't have one, you have to set one up. What is the value in opening a Google Profile if you have a Facebook one? There's a limit to what folks will do and they tend to limit themselves to one.

Who wants to overcome these barriers just to pass a "+1" along, especially if I can just "like" a page and be done?

But why bother, just for that?

Conclusion

Ultimately, Stage 3 is inevitable. Adding all "+1's" up (if "regular" people take this up, Google's biggest challenge) is going to have an "organic" impact on rankings. Just to be clear (re Stage 3)...

The collective "+1'ing" of Web pages, at Google search and at individual sites, is going to be one more signal in Google's algorithm that affects your rankings.

Of course, that means Google needs to put "+1" spam-detection into place, a whole new algo for detecting this. Google's spam-fighting of links is still not where it should be. Hopefully, starting from scratch, they can get it right this time.

Remember Google's biggest worry...

Facebook's deeper social signals (its "Open Graph") are likely going to be integrated into Bing's algo. (Bing will pay a pretty penny for exclusivity and Facebook is likely happy to shut Google out.)

So Google needs to make this work. Will it?

Google will add some social aspects that it's missing, a new "layer" as they call it.

How big it becomes is open to debate.

Marketers are excited about it. But for this to fly, it has to be of interest to everyday folks.

Oddly, I've not read, in any of the releases and commentary on "+1," this concern...

Google is trapped in its own skin, talking to Webmasters (the folks they are trying to influence during all the buzz of this release), but they've not addressed why surfers would use this. Net Marketers always think about how they can market to each other, so they just get naturally excited about all the spammy aspects of this.

Somehow, no one thinks about whether the regular person will adopt a newly invented wheel when the existing one, Facebook, is already used and loved by everyone. Will they really use "+1", with all the drawbacks outlined above?

Yes, those with e-business sites will adopt this when Stage 2 comes out. We can't afford not to. For example, even for those who have their doubts (i.e., me)...

As soon as the "+1" button can be added to your site, we will be adding it to Socialize It!. Google says that will be months, although you can sign up sooner for Stage 2 beta when it's available.

The largest benefit for all with e-businesses (assuming you deliver excellent content) will occur at Stage 3. If the "mass-market" uses the "+1 button, Google has its much-wanted "social layer" for its algorithm. Those with excellent content, especially SBIers, will do a bit better in the rankings.

Just "a bit?" Yes, this will be just another factor in an algorithm that has hundreds of factors. If it turns out to be an excellent predictor of quality and relevance, it may even grow to be as important as inbound links.

But for now (Stages 1 and 2)... it has zero impact on the actual rankings. And at Stage 3... that's when it gets interesting.

What Do You Do?

If you own SBI!, you need do nothing except what you are already doing (following the Action Guide). As we've seen over the years, every change at the engines "fits" with the SBI! process. Every improvement to an algorithm helps you. Google Dances don't hurt.

So just keep on doing what you've been doing.

Personally, I'm not sure that this is a game-changer. The social search aspects (Stages 1 and 2) can't hurt. If this does fly (i.e., regular surfers do this), it's doing to be a nice plus for SBIers.

Great content will automatically be the recipient of votes, so whether it's social search (a friend liked a page related to a search you are doing) or regular search rankings of Stage 3 (the bigger benefit), quality relevant information benefits. My suspicion is that, long-term, it's the latter that will be the big winner here IF "regular surfers" buy in.

Naturally, it's going to be bad news for SEOers, especially those who game the system. Why? Because SEO will have become that much more complicated again. And who'd "vote" for heavily SEO'd sites (unless they are "good content white hat" sites)?

One thing you could do... Hope for this to work for Google.

This puts Google into the Like business. If "+1" is adopted by "the mass-market user," Google gets its big +1 -- a social graph that could rival the data in Facebook's (over time).

In Stages 1 and 2: Adding social data about pages that get inserted will bring a bit of traffic, at most (the power of coincidence remains to be seen, as does the importance of a not-very-visible note that "12 people +1'd this" for pages that get found "organically" now (i.e., pre-algo changes due to this signal).

Stage 3 ultimately brings more traffic to high value-add content sites.

Could "+1" backfire and actually push more awareness of Facebook's Like button, with surfers choosing to use it as their default "pass it on" vote? It's possible. It's definitely going to be fun to watch! :-)

Watch for Stage 2. That's when "the fun" starts. You'll add the "+1" button.

"Regular" folks are more likely to "+1" during Stage 2. That is when you know you like a Web page, not at the point when you are still doing a search.

And watch for Google to announce Stage 3 and some point after that...

If Google can get its searchers past the drawbacks outlined above (and don't underestimate how much "messy" hurts), Stage 3's impact on actual search rankings, not just the appearance of "+1's" by friends during coincidental searches or specific Social Search (well-hidden in the left margin), could deliver, in the long run, some solid new traffic.

If Google can control spam, these may ultimately be even more valuable than inbound links (devalued by spam and a variety of other issues). So what to do?

Hope this works, unless you are an SEOer or you use tricks to fool Google.

And stand by to add the "+1" button to your site. While it's far from certain whether folks will click on it, this is one bet you can't afford not to make (SBIers will just need to click on a button).

Interesting times ahead! :-)

All the best,